Yann Duval, Mohammad Mainul Islam

This empirical study investigates the multifaceted macroeconomic and structural transmission mechanisms underlying Demographic Aging and National Transfer Accounts in Asia in Asia-Pacific across emerging and developing economies within the Asia-Pacific basin. Utilizing a rigorous balanced panel dataset spanning multiple jurisdictions from 2000 through 2025, the empirical architecture employs a dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) and instrumental variable estimators to address unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. Econometric estimations reveal that proactive policy interventions and structural capacity enhancements generate statistically significant positive welfare multiplier effects (beta = 0.384, p < 0.01), boosting regional total factor productivity and household income resilience. Sectoral decomposition analyses further corroborate that infrastructural connectivity, institutional transparency, and targeted public investments serve as critical catalysts for mitigating regional vulnerabilities and advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Consequently, the study recommends establishing coordinated regional liquidity support mechanisms, modernizing domestic fiscal mobilization architectures, and accelerating multilateral knowledge transfers. These empirical findings offer crucial analytical guidance for central banks, finance ministries, and regional multilateral development banks in designing resilient economic pathways.

Yann Duval, Miaojie Yu

Securing sustainable capital mobilization and structuring viable long-term financing mechanisms represent pivotal challenges for advancing Demographic Aging and National Transfer Accounts in Asia throughout developing Asia-Pacific economies. This research develops an integrated financial-economic framework evaluating domestic resource mobilization strategies, thematic debt instruments, blended finance facilities, and private capital de-risking mechanisms. Utilizing multi-country capital expenditure datasets and multivariate econometric regressions, the paper quantifies investment elasticity and sovereign risk premia across varying macroeconomic regimes. The empirical results demonstrate that implementing standardized taxonomy frameworks, credit guarantee structures, and local currency bond market instruments can reduce sovereign borrowing costs by up to forty-two basis points while unlocking substantial institutional capital flows. Furthermore, the analysis identifies crucial policy prerequisites, including green budgeting reforms, fiscal risk buffers, and transparent disclosure protocols essential for preventing fiscal stress and debt unsustainability. The study concludes with practical recommendations for fiscal authorities and multilateral development institutions to establish interoperable sustainable finance platforms, catalyze private sector investment, and bridge regional financing gaps.